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TICE, DRAM: results and trends
TICE Semiconductor Exchange Trading Results for DRAM Chips and Memory Modules at the close on Friday, June 29, 2021.
Name MHz Oscillation Change 64 Mbps, 8M x 8100/133 $ 0.90 – $ 1.00 – $ 0.06 (-5.94%) 64 Mbps, 4M x 16100/133 $ 1.00 – $ 1.10 – $ 0.04 (-3 , 22%) 128 Mbps, 16M x 8 133 $ 1.85 – $ 2.00 – $ 0.22 (-5.64%) 128 Mbps, 8M x 16 133 $ 1.85 – $ 2.00 – $ 0.35 (-15 , 38)
168-pin SDRAM DIMMs
NameMBStdKonfig.$ Weekly 512M328T16C-133512PC133 32Mx8,16-chip.69.00-7.00 (-9.21%) 256M168T16C-133256PC133 16Mx8.16-chip.28.25- $ 0.75 (-2.59%) 128M168T8C-133128PC133 16Mx8, 8-chip.14.25- $ 0.50 (-3.39%) 128M816T8C-133128PC133 8Mx16, 8-chip.14.25 – $ 0.50 (-3.39%) 128M808T16C-133128PC133 8Mx8.16-chip.$ 14.50 -0.50 (-3.33%) 64M808T8C-133 64PC133 8Mx8, 8-chip.9.75 + $ 0.25 (+ 2.63%) 128M808T16C-100 128PC100 8Mx8 16-chip.13.50- $ 0.50 (-3.57%) 64M808T8C-100 64PC100 8Mx8, 8-chip.$ 8.75 0.00 (0.00%) 32M416T4C-100 32PC100 4Mx16 4-chip.7.00 + $ 0.25 (+ 3.57%)
The tone of commemorative pricing messages this week has shifted to a more relaxed tone. Despite the fact that prices continue to decline, the process has slowed down somewhat, and there are several reasons for this. Pay attention – the prices for PC100 modules not only stopped, but also increased slightly. Why? It’s very simple – despite the continuation of their quotations, these modules cannot be ordered on TICE at the moment, they are simply not available! The situation is, of course, temporary, nevertheless, it is quite indicative. Remember how things were with SIMM modules – the price continued to decline until they became absolutely unnecessary. And those who still needed them for some reason had to pay more than for similar DIMMs. The product is unfashionable, with time turning into the category of antiques. It is possible that soon, the same fate will befall the PC100 modules.
128 MB and 256 MB PC133 modules “hardly budged” – compared to the previous turbulent weeks, but now prices for 512 MB modules have staggered – another minus $ 7. In two weeks, that is, from June 15 – the moment when they began to be quoted on the exchange and appeared in our review, 512 MB modules have already lost $ 10.50 in price, and so far the pace is only accelerating.
Regarding chip prices, I would like to note that this week there were no particular jumps, and the sharp price drop for 128 Mbit (8M x 16) chips is just a result of the fact that last week they became cheaper than the others, and now it’s just ” caught up with “128 Mbit (16M x 8) chips.
From other interesting news on the memory market:
- Analysts this week stepped up their “prophecies” – the end of the quarter is near, soon there will be one after another reports of manufacturers, the attention of society is again riveted on the numbers. Gartner Dataquest has released its research, according to which the volume of DRAM sales in 2021 will decrease by 45.7%, respectively, the manufacturers will receive a total sales of only $ 15.7 billion. [Now, even somehow, the language will not turn to call the industry of production of memory products “$ 30 billion” :-)]. IDC gives an even gloomier forecast – the industry will go into negative territory by 55.1%. And the long-range forecast is as follows: only by 2021 the industry can reach the turnover of the 2000 level.
- Korea’s Digital Chosun, citing research from Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MSDW) analysts, concluded that the global market is simply small for giants such as Samsung, Micron, Hynix, Infineon and NEC. Moreover, as noted in MSDW, currently only Samsung and Micron feel more or less confident and continue to actively develop production facilities. Nevertheless, even they reduced the volume of capital investments (Samsung – by 20%), and Hynyx, for example, practically froze the construction of new lines, and only in 2021 plans to invest 1.7 trillion. won the construction of a new factory for the production of 12 inch plates. Many analysts’ verdicts on the outlook for price increases are not diversified: “Until Windows XP starts shipping in October, DRAM prices will continue to decline, and only closer to the beginning of next year, perhaps, will gain strength again.”
- As we reported yesterday, Hynix intends to simply suspend up to 20% of production capacity. The calculation is simple – and losses from sales of chips below the cost price will decrease, and, as an option, some growth is not excluded, or, simply, prices stabilization in the world market. Similar statements have already been made by Samsung. True, it has other plans – to reduce, but not stop, the release of 64 Mbit chips, to switch in the fourth quarter mainly to the release of 256 Mbit chips, at the same time increasing the release of Rambus DRAM and DDR DRAM.
- Micron, meanwhile, said this week that its capacities are 100% utilized and most products come in 0.15 micron geometries. The headquarters of the company in Idaho produces more than half of all products according to the 0.15 micron process technology, Micron plans to switch to the 0.13 micron process technology by the end of the year. By the way, as announced by the company’s management, by the new year 2021 the share of DDR products in the total production volume will be up to 30%.
Here is a summary of the upcoming plans of major memory manufacturers from The DigiTimes:
Plans of leading DRAM manufacturers Name Product Plans Samsung 64 Mbps 28% of total volume at the beginning of the year, less than 10% now and no more than 5% by the end of the year 128 Mbps Less than 40% of total production by the end of the year 256 Mbps Increased production volumes from 15% to 27% – 28% Hynix 64 Mbps Up to 50% current, but will decline 256 Mbps 10% currently, up 20% by the end of the year DDR Growth to 20% of total output by the end of the year Micron64 Mbps / 128 Mbps Almost complete reduction in output by the end of the year 256 Mbps Increased output NEC64 Mbps 1.8 million. units per month now, complete cessation of production by the first quarter of 2021 128 Mbps Increase to 30% of the total production output by the first quarter of 2021 Toshiba 64 Mbps / 128 Mbps The total output is currently up to 25 million. pieces per month, 20% – 30% of them – by subcontracts. Policy to increase the volume of work on order – up to 50%. Memory for PCO About 50% of the total number at present, a decrease to 5% by 2021 Mitsubishi Electric 64 Mbit Up to 50% of the total volume now, less than 10% – by the first quarter of 2021 Winbond 64 Mbit / 128 Mbit Volume reduction 256 Mbit Increase in volumes Elpida Memory 256 Mbit New factory of the company will produce mostly 256 Mbit DRAM chips
It remains to add a little. The level of average retail prices in the Moscow memory market this week was quite calm. The average percentage of price reduction for 128 MB memory modules was 2% – 5%, for 256 MB – 3% – 5%, for 512 MB modules almost remained the same. The only exceptions are brand-modules manufactured by Kingston, Samsung and Micron, especially with ECC, which dropped in price in some positions quite significantly – up to 15% – 17%.
You can learn more about the situation on the domestic memory market here, in our weekly monitoring of the Moscow memory market.